‘A difference of opinion is what
makes horse racing and missionaries’, or so said American
entertainer Will Rogers. He was right insofar as bookmakers’ odds
are, after all, just an opinion of the likely outcome of a horse
race. Bookmakers have an effective ‘jungle telegraph’ and are
likely to be at least as well informed as the average punter but,
even so, outsiders do win, and win fairly often.
In the absence of information that is
not in the public domain, a.k.a. ‘inside’ information, from a
jockey, owner or trainer, picking an outsider with a winning chance
typically involves thinking ‘outside the box’ a little. Horses
with recent winning, or placed, form, especially those that are
attempting little or nothing more than they have achieved in the
past, in terms of class, course, distance and going, are always
likely to be at the forefront of the betting market for an upcoming
race.
The other end of the market, where
likely outsiders are to be found, is typically dominated by horses
that have disappointed, for whatever reason, on recent starts. The
trick, therefore, is to find a horse that has previously shown itself
capable of winning the race under consideration and is undergoing a
favourable change of circumstances. For example, a horse with winning
form on good going may struggle to reproduce that form on soft, or
heavy, going during the winter, but does not become devoid of
ability, and may be capable of winning again under its preferred
conditions.
Similar comments apply to the
characteristics of the course, or courses, on which a horse has been
running recently, the class in, and the distance over, which it has
been competing and so on. In simple terms, look for a horse that is
trying something ‘different’ from its recent races, which is
likely to show it in a more favourable light. This could, say, extend
to young horse making its handicap debut after showing signs of
promise in ‘weight-for-age’ races. In this scenario, and others,
speed ratings, such as those published under the ‘Topspeed’
banner in the Racing Post, can often provide insight into the value
of previous form before it becomes obvious to the bookmakers.