3.20 Southwell, Monday, December 4

In the Betway Casino Handicap (3.20) at Southwell on Monday, recent winning form is at a premium, but St. Patrick’s Day is 2-4 on Fibresand and may be able to improve that record, despite some uninspiring form figures. On his most recent visit to Southwell, nearly a year ago, John Jenkins’ 5-year-old finished third of 11, beaten 6½ lengths, behind Big Storm Coming in a 0-70 handicap over a mile, keeping on well in the closing stages. His more recent efforts, including over hurdles at Fakenham last month, have been less convincing, but he tackles 1 mile 3 furlongs on Fibresand for the first time off a handicap mark fully19lb lower than when last winning at Southwell as a 4-year-old. Granted that he’s beaten just one of thirty rivals on his last three starts on Tapeta and Polytrack, it goes without saying that he’s a risky betting proposition. Nevertheless, that comment applies equally to most, if not all, of his rivals and, if he’s ever to return to the winners’ enclosure, today could be the day.

Selection: Southwell 3.20 St. Patrick’s Day to win  14/1