Welsh Grand National Outsiders

The Christmas highlight at Chepstow, the Welsh National, may be run over just 3 miles 5½ furlongs, but the going at the Monmouthshire venue is almost invariably soft, or heavy, so the race presents a thorough examination for horse and rider. The fact that the roll of honour includes several Aintree Grand National and Cheltenham God Cup winners bears testament to the qualities required to win a Welsh National.

At total of 63 horses stood their ground at the latest declaration stage for this year’s renewal – due off at 2.50 p.m. on Wednesday, December 27 – but the field will be whittled down to a maximum of 20 come the big day. Obviously, it’s still early days, but we’ve cast an eye over the field and come up with a selection that we believe could represent outstanding value in the ante post market.

The horse in question is Singlefarmpayment, trained by Tom George, who can be backed at a standout 33/1 with Sky Bet, but is as short as 14/1 elsewhere. The 7-year-old is just 5lb higher in the weights than when beaten a short head in the Ultima Handicap Chase, over 3 miles 1 furlong, at the Cheltenham Festival last March and has run well on both starts this season. He was being pushed along in sixth when falling at the third last in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase, over 3 miles 2 furlongs, at Newbury earlier this month, but what would have happened if he had remained on his feet is anybody’s guess. He’s yet to race beyond 3 miles 2 furlongs, but shapes as if he’ll stay and remains open to further improvement. Frankly, win or lose, his odds are just too long to resist!

Selection: Singlefarmpayment to win (33/1 with Sky Bet)  (27th December)

Jockey Profile: Frankie Dettori

Introduction

Even those with only a passing interest in horse racing will have heard of Frankie Dettori MBE. He's considered by many to be a true legend of horse racing with a career spanning across decades. Born on 15^th December, 1970, the Italian jockey has set a standard for others that is far from easy to follow. A consummate professional and entertaining personality, Dettori has been the Champion Jockey on three separate occasions and has ammassed several hundred Group Race wins. 

 

Career Summary

It's hard to do justice to Frankie Dettori by reeling off a simple summary of achievements, primarily because it's a very long list! But in brief, with countless wins across a stellar career, some of his major wins include the 1,000 Guineas three times, the 2,000 Guineas twice and the Ascot Gold Cup an incredible five times. Add in a Derby win in 2007, and it’s very easy to see why Dettori is so revered and respected across the board. He's won races in over 20 different countries and on 12th August 2016 had his staggering 3000th British winner, one of only 6 jockeys to do so on the flat.  An incredible competitor, he appears to have a natural feel for the horseS he's riding and the field around him. He doesn't often put a foot wrong.

Achievements & Highlights

Dettori rode all seven of the winners on the British Champions’ Day at Ascot, in 1996. Such an incredible, and still unmatched, achievement surely ranks him as one of the most consistent and impressive names within the sport of horse racing. The feat has in fact gone down in racing history as the 'magnificent seven' and is still talked of today. Several punters decided to back all of Detorri's rides that day and at combined horse racing odds of 25,095-1, it's a day where dreams came true for some (one punter alone won £500,000). The winners in order, were:  

1. Wall Street – 2/1
2. Diffident – 12/1
3. Mark of Esteem – 100/30
4. Decorated Hero – 7/1
5. Fatefully – 7/4
6. Lochangel – 5/4
7. Fujiyama Crest – 2/1

Although Dettori has had his fair share of personal problems over the years, including a substance-related ban in 2012, he more than bounced back to be crowned the World’s Best Jockey in 2015. This very much speak to his character, as a determined and successful sportsman, refusing to let problems knock him off course for long. 

 

Major Wins – Derby (2007), 1,000 Guineas (1998, 2002, 2011) 2,000 Guineas (1996, 1999), St Leger: (1995, 1996, 2005, 2006, 2008), Ascot Gold Cup (1992, 1993, 1998, 2004, 2012)

Earnings – £14 million career earnings.

3.20 Southwell, Monday, December 4

In the Betway Casino Handicap (3.20) at Southwell on Monday, recent winning form is at a premium, but St. Patrick’s Day is 2-4 on Fibresand and may be able to improve that record, despite some uninspiring form figures. On his most recent visit to Southwell, nearly a year ago, John Jenkins’ 5-year-old finished third of 11, beaten 6½ lengths, behind Big Storm Coming in a 0-70 handicap over a mile, keeping on well in the closing stages. His more recent efforts, including over hurdles at Fakenham last month, have been less convincing, but he tackles 1 mile 3 furlongs on Fibresand for the first time off a handicap mark fully19lb lower than when last winning at Southwell as a 4-year-old. Granted that he’s beaten just one of thirty rivals on his last three starts on Tapeta and Polytrack, it goes without saying that he’s a risky betting proposition. Nevertheless, that comment applies equally to most, if not all, of his rivals and, if he’s ever to return to the winners’ enclosure, today could be the day.

Selection: Southwell 3.20 St. Patrick’s Day to win  14/1

2.05 Kempton, Monday, November 27

In the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (2.05) at Kempton on Monday, Colin’s Sister carries a 6lb penalty for winning the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby earlier this month, but the form of that race looks increasingly strong. The runner-up, Wholestone, had previously finished just a length behind Saturday’s wide margin winner, Sam Spinner, who was receiving 9lb, in the Totesport Silver Trophy at Chepstow and the third, Lil Rockerfeller, won the Ascot Hurdle on Saturday.

Fergal O’Brien’s 6-year-old won four times at distances between 2 miles 3 furlongs and 2 miles 5 furlongs last season, but looked better than ever when stepped up to 3 miles for the first time at Wetherby and is entitled to improve again on just her second run since February. The Central Park mare has recorded four of her five career wins on soft going so, with the going at Kempton already good to soft and rain forecast for Sunbury-on-Thames on Sunday and Monday, she could well have her perfect conditions. She’s also won on good going, in any case, so she should run her race whatever the weather in South East England between now and Monday afternoon.

Selection: Kempton 2.05 Colin’s Sister to win

 

Update: There was a mix up on the Sporting Life site which led to them leaving up all early declarations, as such Colin's Sister isn't actually running. Sorry about that!

Big Events, Big Odds

Sometimes it can feel like selecting a big priced winner is akin to finding a needle in a haystack. It's definitely a harder road compared to picking favourites, if you're looking to have a semi regular stream of winners. It takes a certain mentality to adopt picking outsiders as a strategy, and potentially a lot of patience while you bide your time and hold out for that win big!

To stay motivated it can be useful to think back to some of the huge odds selections that have won and rewarded punters in the process. Of course some selections may fall into a 'who could've seen that coming' category, but in other cases there may have well been signs that these unlikely winners had more about them than was first thought by most.

On a national level, the Grand National held yearly at Aintree must be one of, if not, the biggest UK sporting event and gets most of us watching each and every year. I'm sure most of us have been dragged into an office sweepstake or have a competition between family and friends when the National comes around. With such a large field and 16 fences there are so many variables to consider. and let's face it, often a decent element of luck / chance to the outcome. That's a two way street though and unknowns can work for you just as easily as it can work against.

 

Going back through the years there are of course a number of decent priced Grand National winners, but also one or two huge odds selections. Going back to 2013 we have Auroras Encore, ridden by Ryan Mania, winning at very attractive odds of 66-1. The biggest odds in recent memory belong to Mon Mome in 2009 though. Ridden by Liam Treadwell and trained by Venetia Williams it won (well romped home with a 12 length lead!) at staggering odds of 100-1.

Other top tier racing events, such as the Cheltenham Festival offer opportunities to win big too. Focusing in on the Cheltenham Gold Cup, in 2014 Lord Windermere was triumphant at decent odds of 20-1. We have to go back to 1990 to find a 100-1 winner though (Norton's Coin in an impressive time of 6:30).

 

Of course all of these odds are the official SP. On the exchanges, a 100-1 can commonly be twice those odds or more. It's important to use everything in your favour when you're 'panning for gold' with seriously big odds selections, so that when you do land a big win you get the maximum benefit from it.

Of course beyond horse racing we could get into the mind boggling odds of other major events, such as Leicester City winning the Premier League, but that's for another post, and beside I'm pretty sure even Mystic Meg didn't see that one coming!

2.00 Carlisle, Sunday, November 5

Lightly-raced Irish import Chozen has yet to win a race of any kind, but makes the 300-mile trek north to Carlisle from Aberthin in the Vale of Glamorgan and may be able to make more of an impact in the Watch Racing UK on BT TV Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (2.00). Trainer Tim Vaughan has only had 11 runners at the Cumbrian course over the last five seasons, but four of them have won, three have finished second and two have finished third, so a prominent showing by the son of good jumps sire Well Chosen would be no great surprise. Chozen ran respectably on both point starts – albeit falling two out when holding every chance on his debut at Borris Hill last February – over 3 miles for Thomas Mullins, so the combination of soft going and a galloping, testing track may well show him in better light on just his fourth attempt over hurdles. The stable has been a little quiet in the last fortnight, with just two winners from 34 runners, but a 36% strike rate at Carlisle is persuasive and Chozen must have a decent chance in a race where winning form is thin on the ground. It's worth a punt on it at NetBet Sport . Enjoy the race!

Selection: Carlisle 2.00 Chozen to win

Racing Post Trophy Review

Champion trainer Aiden O’Brien made history on Saturday when he earned his 26th Group 1 victory of the season in the Racing Post Trophy. It broke a world record set by American Bobby Frankel in 2003 for the most top-level wins in a flat racing season. He equalled the record last weekend, when Hydrangea won at Ascot, and then Saxon Warrior romped to victory at Doncaster on Saturday to seal it. The win capped a glorious season for the Ballydoyle maestro, who has enjoyed an unprecedented level of success in 2017.

The Racing Post Trophy was a thriller thanks to a remarkable showing from third favourite Roaring Lion. Saxon Warrior, the 13/8 favourite, led the frontrunners for much of the race, but then 10/1 shot Roaring Lion lived up to his name, thundering through the crowd to seize the lead with a furlong to go. He looked unstoppable, but Saxon Warrior battled back in sensational style and nicked it by a neck

The Doncaster crowd erupted and O’Brien wheeled away in triumph. Another O’Brien-trained colt, The Pentagon, was third, and the Irish trainer will have plenty more chances to build on his 26 wins this season as we still have more than 20 G1 races to go before it draws to a close. If you click here for the latest spread betting markets, you will see O’Brien’s charges dominating several top races.

Saxon Warrior is emerging as the real star juvenile in an outrageously successful stable and is the outright favourite to win next year’s Derby, some four points ahead of the rest of the field. The two-year-old, a son of the great Japanese runner Deep Impact, has won all three career starts thus far and keeps improving with every race. He dominated his rivals on his debut in late August and then seized the Beresford Stakes in imposing fashion. When John Gosden’s Roaring Lion surged past him in the £200,000 Racing Post Trophy on Saturday he looked destined for minor honours at best, but he found reserves and claimed a pulsating victory.

We could see him again before the Derby as he is the 6/1 favourite for the 2000 Guineas. After Saturday’s win, jockey Ryan Moore said he would have no problem being a Guineas horse, while O’Brien noted that there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree. “He’s obviously a very good horse and what he did today was battle, he fought back,” said O’Brien. “He’s a very special horse, we think. He’s done everything we've asked of him and he's only been a baby. I’d say there's no doubt he'll be better on better ground.”

O’Brien first broke the world record in 2001, when he had 21 winners, but he was usurped by Frankel in the US two years later. He came close to breaking Frankel’s world record in 2008, but could only get to 23 – two short of equalling it. He may have given up hope of ever achieving the feat, but he has enjoyed a sensational 2017 season. It is certainly worth keeping an eye on his other runners in G1 races between now and the end of the season as he seeks to post an unbeatable world record.

But another one to look out for is Gosden’s Roaring Lion, who came so close to spoiling O’Brien’s day. He was unbeaten going into the race, having claimed the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket last month by a neck from O’Brien’s Nelson, and he came within a whisker of winning the Racing Post Trophy. He displayed great pace and power and will surely trouble plenty more G1 races throughout his career. Gosden has enjoyed a fantastic resurgence this season and Roaring Lodge could well develop into one of the stars of his exciting stable.

Author bio

Martin Green is an experienced horse racing correspondent and tipster and has been covering the industry for many years.

2.40 Catterick, Tuesday, October 31

In the Book Now For New Year’s Day Handicap (2.40) at Catterick on Tuesday, Ingleby Hollow returned to form, in a first-time tongue tie, over 1 mile 6 furlongs at Redcar 11 days ago and remains well treated on the pick of his form last season. David O’Meara’s 5-year-old won off today’s mark of 67 at Ayr last July and followed up at Thirsk ten days later off a mark of 73 so, from a handicapping perspective, his chance is there for all to see. It’s fair to say that the Beat Hollow gelding isn’t a prolific winner, but he does have winning form over 2 miles, and on soft ground, under Daniel Tudhope, so he must have a decent chance of following up in another run-of-the-mill handicap. He was notably ridden with much more restraint at Redcar than had previously been the case and, if that’s the key to him, a 4lb rise in the weights is hardly prohibitive. Despite his moderate wins-to-runs ratio, he looks a potential ‘good thing’ at today’s weights.

Selection: Catterick 2.40 Ingleby Hollow to win 8/1

3.35 Nottingham, Wednesday, October 18

The Kier Property Handicap (3.35) at Nottingham on Wednesday is a competitive heat for the grade, but may provide Indian Chief with the opportunity to make amends for a luckless run over course and distance last week.

Rebecca Bastiman’s 7-year-old was only fifth of 10, beaten 2¼ lengths, on that occasion, but was galloping all over the opposition in the final three furlongs, only to be left with nowhere to go, and finished hard on the steel. A week previously, the Montjeu gelding had suffered an interrupted passage when failing by just a short head to overhaul Compton Mill over course and distance – with the reliable yardstick Silver Ghost back in third – and, on 1lb better terms, has every chance of reversing the form.

Indian Chief has been raised 3lb for his most recent effort but, granted that he almost certainly would have won with a clear run, he looks attractively handicapped. He’s done all his winning on soft, or good to soft, going and is reunited with Daniel Tudhope, who won on him at Hamilton in September, so he looks sure to be popular.

Selection: Nottingham 3.35 Indian Chief to win 10/1

3.15 Brighton, Tuesday, October 10

In the Beattie-Farrance Nursery Handicap (3.15) on Brighton on Tuesday, Lady Godiva has yet to trouble the judge in three starts, but ran her best race so far when fourth of 10, beaten 2¼ lengths, in a fillies’ maiden over 6 furlongs at the East Sussex track last month. That form has yet to be fully tested, but the third, Princess Harley, was subsequently beaten, but not disgraced, by two promising types in a better race at Newmarket. The first and second in the Brighton race, Wear It Well and Daybreak, are officially rated 77 and 83, respectively, so Lady Godiva doesn’t look overburdened off an opening handicap mark of 72. Her pedigree suggests that stepping back up to 7 furlongs is in her favour and Richard Hannon has a healthy 15-53 (28%) strike rate with his juveniles at Brighton since taking over from his father, so she looks a decent bet to make her handicap debut a winning one.

Selection: Brighton 3.15 Lady Godiva to win  10-1

Horse Racing Tips

Horse racing has been around for a very long time, powered by the punters desire for a quick win and a lifestyle of celebration. Well, a quick win in most cases and it can become a desire to be victorious at the races.

Winning is always nice and many a person can develop a taste for it. Indeed, it’s a trait that can be passed on to siblings and family generations follow in their forefather’s footsteps and travel to racecourses that scour the great English and Irish countryside.

Where to find a tip?

It’s a common term; “tip”, especially when heading out for the day at the races. Many a hardened gambler will often give his nose a tap, when you mention this word. Try it, they may even offer you some insight, though be wary they could also mislead you with their information. This help them get a better price see, well, in their heads it will.

So, where can you find a decent tip? Don’t worry, back alleys don’t really abound these days and the long mac’d, woodbine smoking man, donned with flat cap is still stuck in the 1950s.

All you need these days is a good internet connection. If you’re web savvy you’ll soon find yourself drowning in tips, from self-proclaimed horse whisperers to people who have the winning, mathematical formula that, not only predicts horse racing outcomes, but could take us to the moon. A good source of daily horse racing tip actions come from the guys at TheWinners Enclosure, just follow the link for more daily horse racing tips and insights.

What goes into the making of a tip?

Well, you know what a tip is but how is the judgement call made, what’s the formula to making a tip?

The best tips are the ones where the horse has big odds, these guarantee the biggest returns see. But, why would anyone tip a horse with huge odds? Usually, they won’t but every now and then a horse may appear where a bit of inside information could’ve been leaked. For example, so one notices the owner of a particular horse throws their maximum bet on it. How this information is derived is beyond us but visitor courses and now and then you may over hear a conversation that suggests this has occurred.

Use this information wisely, it may sometimes be correct, but this doesn’t mean it’ll win, though crazier things have happened…

What do the bookie tipsters consider when putting a tip together?

The more uniformed approach involves looking at a horse and checking out the runners. Is there a favourite who’s romped home in their last few outings? Probably. Have any others in the line-up done anything similar? Possibly, but if not you may find yourself leaning toward the favourite.

Slightly more advanced insights will involve conditions, has the favourite won on a dry field before, does he like wet conditions, what sort of condition is he in now? These are more immediate factors but can strongly influence the horse’s performance.

The horse’s mark is also a serious condition; a horse’s condition is usually always being monitored and the higher the mark the better the horse ranks. The marks that refer to a horse’s score are judged differently, dependant on the country the horse comes from. Just beware of the mark, you can find these online.

Is there such a thing as a one-horse race?

A punter will tell you yes, but it’s in their interest too. They love going to the races and having a bet. They’ll not say otherwise, will they?

It’s rare that a horse with low odds against a field of horses who don’t come near to it in the odds stakes, fails to win the race. So, an intelligent answer could be yes, but it’s finding that race these days that can be tricky. Even if you do there’s always a slight chance something profound may happen and the horse doesn’t win.

Good luck with your horse bets, but remember; a lot of thought has gone into those odds and a tip may just be as good as a well calculated prediction.

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4.20 Newmarket, Thursday, September 28

Arch Villain makes his belated debut in Listed company in the Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (4.20) at Newmarket on Thursday but, having made a highly promising seasonal debut in the Betfred Ebor Handicap at York last month, Amanda Perrett’s 8-year-old looks well worth his place in the field. Lightly raced in recent seasons, the Arch gelding returned from a lengthy layoff to win three times in 2016, including the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup over 2 miles at Ascot last August. In so doing, he gave 10lb and a neck beating to subsequent Cesarewitch third, Sea Of Heaven, so the form looks reliable enough. He probably doesn’t want the ground too soft, but stepping back up to 2 miles should do his chances no harm. Nor should the fact that’s he’s reunited with Jim Crowley, who’s ridden him to seven of his ten career victories.

Selection: Newmarket 4.20 Arch Villain to win  12/1

Key things to consider when picking your horses on course

A horse race is not the most thrilling of sporting contests to watch, but that all changes if you have money riding on one of the runners. It is suddenly transformed into a giddy, exhilarating, nail-biting couple of minutes where you could be forgiven for growing increasingly animated. Having a flutter on the gee-gees is becoming an increasingly popular pastime, but for newcomers it can be a complex and potentially alienating world to move into, what with the jargon that flies around and the detailed form guides. As a result, many newbies simply back the favourite or choose a horse they like the name of or whose number they find lucky. But there is more of an art to it than that and some punters make a living from understanding the finer nuances of the industry. You do not need to become a professional to have fun and make a bit of cash, but there are some things you should consider before placing a bet.

Key Considerations

There are several factors you need to consider before placing a wager on a race: the course, the ground, the distance, the weight, the class, the jockey and the trainer. The track the race is taking place on has a huge impact, as every course has different characteristics and horses have favourite courses. The ground is key because some horses respond well to firm, dry ground whereas others perform well in the sloppy mud that follows heavy rain. The distance is a crucial consideration because some horses excel over short distances like five or six furlongs, while others are better over long-distance races, like a mile and four furlongs and above. Sometimes stall numbers can play a part, because the horses coming out of the low numbers will have a shorter distance to run and those in the outside stalls will have to travel further around the bend. Trainers place horses in various classes depending on their ability. The highest is Class 1 and the lowest is Class 7, and the quality varies accordingly, as do the prize purses. Many races are handicaps, which means most horses have to carry additional weight to even the playing field. The weight of a horse can greatly impact upon its ability to win. Jockeys also have a preference for certain courses, while some trainers specialise in getting their horses ready for specific races, and it is worth paying heed to all these considerations.

The Form

Once you have armed yourself with all the information listed above, you then need to see how well each of the runners fits into the picture. If the horse has won on that track, or the trainer or jockey has enjoyed great success there, that is a good sign. However, you need to be careful: if all the horse’s wins have come when the going is firm but the going is soft that day then you might want to avoid it. Likewise, if it is a big step up or step down in distance compared to what the horse usually runs that might set alarm bells ringing. A step up in class is also something to consider: the horse may have secured several wins in low-profile races, but if it is thrust into a prestigious Group 1 or Group 2 race it will have far sterner competition to deal with. If a horse is making a step down in class, that is also a consideration as it may have a better chance of winning, but the odds might be less attractive. It is advisable to examine how well each horse in the contest has fared in previous races of a similar calibre and distance, when the going has been similar, and compare them against one another, before making your selection, while also bearing in mind any additional weight they may be carrying and the how well the trainer and jockey have been performing.

General Tips

Favourites only win 30% of the time, so it often pays to oppose the horse with the shortest price and go against the general betting public.

When you turn to https://www.sunbets.co.uk/ and look for who to bet on, there are several indicators that a horse will perform well in an upcoming race that you should keep in mind. For example, if it has finished in the top three at the same approximate distance (within a furlong) in its last three races, providing the surface and going was similar, give it a tick. If the horse has finished in the top three in each of its last three races at a similar class that is a reason to shortlist it. If it raced at a higher class in the past month or two and is dropping down, that is a reason to consider it. If the horse has won 20% or more of its last five starts, or if its jockey or trainer has won 20% of their races that year, give it a tick. If it has posted a resounding win in the past six weeks, give it another tick. If the horse lost in the past six weeks but had a valid excuse – such as being impeded – it is worth considering as it may well fare better and get you a decent price. If the horse had a long layoff and lost on its return, you can consider it as it will be likely to improve this time around. The more of these factors you can tick off, the better, so the horse with the most ticks next to its name could be your selection, providing the odds are not too low and it is not too heavily backed. Ultimately, make sure you enjoy it and do not wager more than you can afford, and you can grow a great appreciation for this exciting and engaging sport.

Author bio

Martin Green is an experienced horseracing correspondent and tipster.

What are the Chances?

Sometimes, despite the time and effort put in to analysing form, it can seem like a real uphill struggle to pick a winner. That applies to all sports I'd say. This is especially the case when your whole angle is in picking outsiders, because even in a good year you'll be picking far more losers than winners, it's the nature of the beast. So it's more about mentally getting yourself attuned to the idea that not everything you bet on will come romping home in first place, and that you're going to have the odd dry spell of bad results - it's inevitable.

Of course it pays to remember that the opposite will sometimes be true too. There will be moments in betting, no matter your area of expertise, where you feel that you just can't put a foot wrong - a temporary midus touch - and so in the long run it all balances out really.

While specialising in an area or having various other advantages over the average punter can give you the edge you need in the long run, it's of course also true that outside of that expertise, any punter, casual or professional, can be on the receiving end of unfathomable good or bad luck.

Both the ups and down of fortune are perhaps never more apparent than with poor Cynthia Jay-Brennan, who won $35million on the slots, but was tragically left paralysed just 6 weeks later due to a car crash. On the more positive side, take the retired Las Vegas flight attendant who only intended to bet $100 on the slots, but got carried and and ended up spending $300. Her reward? A $27.5 million win on the megaslots machine. Or 74 year old Johanna Heundl who also decided to give the megaslots machine a swirl while on the way to breakfast. She thought she'd struck it rich with a $2million win, but she'd misread and it was actually $22million. Not a bad win to rack up before your breaksfast!

A friend of mine is moving to Las Vegas this year and so - who knows - I might have my own rags to riches story before long. In the meantime though, if you're interested in some slots machine fun, EmotiCoins Slot is a good option. With free spins and a welcome bonus it's a nice way to kill some time and if your luck's in, who knows how much you might pocket.

3.25 Redcar, Tuesday, September 19

The Racing UK Straight Mile Series Handicap (3.25) is the best race of the day at Redcar on Tuesday and, although roundly thrashed in 0-90 company at Newmarket and Thirsk on his two most recent starts, Showboating can take advantage of this slight drop in class. John Balding’s 9-year-old has shown his best form on turf with plenty of cut in the ground and, although still 5lb higher in the weights than when winning the Carlisle Bell Consolation Race Handicap in June, promising apprentice Lewis Edmunds takes off a useful 3lb.

Obviously, the Shamardal gelding isn’t getting any younger, but he’s been given a short break since finishing out with the washing, at 50/1, at Thirsk in August and demonstrated earlier in the year that he’s still a force to be reckoned with at this level. His trainer has a paltry 5-140 (4%) career strike rate at the North Yorkshire course, but that shouldn’t necessarily be held against Showboating, who has his favoured conditions and is by no means impossibly handicapped on his best form.

Of course, Showboating is fully exposed but, with the possible exceptions of the 3-year-old Kynren, who’s had just three career starts, and the 4-year-old Poet’s Beauty, who returns from an absence of 431 days and must have fitness doubts, the same can be said of the opposition. John Balding has used Lewis Edmunds to good effect this season, so Showboating should hopefully go well at a decent price.

Selection: Redcar 3.25 Showboating to win  - 25/1

Pie in the Sky!

When you're down on your luck, even betting on an odds-on favourite can feel like you're climbing a mountain. In that mindset it can be easy to totyally write off long shots. Let's hear it then for those not dissuaded by dizzying odds selections who reaped rewards for sticking to their guns, whether they were just putting a few quid on, or laying much more on the line!

1) In 2003 Mike Futter, Dublin bingo hall owner, clearly knew he was onto something special with his horse Monte's Pass. Both he and all four of his co-owners had a 'put your money where your mouth is' moment placing numerous bets in the £5,000 - £10,000 range e/w at odds of between 20 and 33-1 on the horse. The result? A cool £1,000,000 + profit. Not a bad day at the office!

2) In 1989 a 40 year old man from Newport, Wales managed to win big by making a number of predictions about events he was sure would come to pass by the year 2000. Namely that: U2 would remain together  (4-1), Cliff Richard would be knighted (4-1), Eastenders would still be a weekly soap (5-1), Neighbours (5-1) and Home and Away (8-1) would still be televised in the UK. The man, who placed a fairly modest bet for this combo of events, won £200,000 for his troubles. It remains the biggest 'novelty' bet win to date!

3) The first betting shop millionaire became so as result of a meager 50 pence bet. Fred Craggs from Thirk landed an accumulator with mind boggling odds of 2,000,000-1 on his 60th birthday of all days! His 8 selections had a prophetic aspect to them too, with the first winner called 'Isn't That Lucky' and the last 'A Dream Come True'!

4) At Royal Ascot in 1996, a Frankie Detorri follower decided to back the man to the nth degree, which on the day meant doing an acca on all 7 of Detorri's rides that day. For his troubles the punter saw his £59 bet turn into a cool £550,000

5) The sad death of the aptly named Nick Newlife would be no obstacle to a big outsider win. When his 2003 bet for tennis star Roger Federer to win Wimbledon 9 nines by 2019 came up, the winnings were left to Oxfam. They had retained the ticket since Mr Newlife's death in 2009, and no doubt many benefited from the 66-1 windfall of £101,840

3.35 York, Saturday, August 26

The Ebor Handicap (3.35) at York on Saturday is as competitive as ever, but Nakeeta has recorded all her best form on good to soft, or softer, going and looks to have a sporting chance under highly capable apprentice Callum Rodriguez. Iain Jardine’s 6-year-old mare remains 14lb higher in the weights than when winning at Haydock two seasons ago, but she was only beaten half a length, off a 4lb lower mark, in the valuable November Handicap, over 1 mile 7 furlongs, at Leopardstown last October and far from disgraced when fourth, on ground probably a little faster than ideal, when last seen at Newmarket in June. Over her optimum trip, with cut in the ground and a decent pace to aim at, she looks cracking value at 16/1 with Sportingbet, Boylesports or Stan James.

Selection: Nakeeta to win

Goodwood 4.45, Wednesday, August 2

Sagely has recorded both wins under Silvestre De Sousa, as well as finishing second, off a 1lb higher mark, in this race last year. The Brazilian was once again in the saddle when Ed Dunlop’s filly finished third, beaten a neck and three-quarters of a length, at Salisbury last month and the partnership appears to have every chance of going one better than last year. The form of her previous third at Chelmsford has been franked by the winner, Ickymasho, and the runner-up, Banditry, who both reoppose, and she went down fighting against the unexposed Standing Rock at Salisbury. She’s 4lb better off for three-quarters of a length with Billesdon Bess, with finished second in the latter race and, while she steps back up in class, she still appears feasibly weighted for a return to the winners’ enclosure.

Obviously there are plenty with chances, as is the case with all the handicaps this week but, at a double-figure price, Sagely looks good value to take Silvestre De Sousa one closer to a second jockeys’ title.

Goodwood 4.45 Sagely to win (16/1 with Ladbrokes)

Who wants to be a millionaire?

Who wants to be a millionaire?  Miss McCann does. The Belfast student is suing Bet365 on account that they are refusing to pay out an eye watering £1,009,960 winning wager made on her account last year. To be precise, the bet was in fact a series of 960 £13 each way 'Lucky 15' bets placed on twelve horses in four races (Bath 6.10, Kempton 7.20, Naas, Ireland 7.00 and 8.30) on June 22nd 2016.

Placing the bets cost a pretty penny too, close to £25,000, a sum which Bet365 is currently withholding too. Despite what appear to be early assurances to Miss McCann that she would be receiving payment, her account was suspended and later closed with Bet365 claiming that McCann breached their ‘no third party’ rule, which states that the entire stake must be put up by the customer alone.

Reading between the lines it would appear that Miss McCann may have placed the bet on behalf of other individuals or a syndicate. Not enough information is out there right now to comment further, though it will perhaps surprise and concern some of those involved in betting syndicates (or placing bets online for others) to realise that this type of situation can come about. It will be interesting to see the eventual outcome of the dispute.

Bullington Bandit

Bullington Bandit springs an 80-1 surprise on debut in the first division of the Novice Stakes @NewburyRacing for Jane Chapple-Hyam. pic.twitter.com/KCd5BQuAR9

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) June 15, 2017

Bulinton Badnit was 200-1 on Betfair, with some taken at several hundred to one in-running in the 1.30 Newbury race (15th June). A good day for some (and a very bad one for others!)

2:10 Yarmouth (Wednesday 14th June)

Wait One Minute, Sovereign State Gets My Vote

An EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 42y on good to firm going. Just five runners: two with race experience and a trio of debutantes. 

One Minute will be the answer to the question for many punters here. To be honest, you can't knock this strapping filly trained by William Haggas.  This bay is a daughter of Kodiac and a cracking 2yo purchase at the breeze-up sales for £52,000. She made her debut in May racing over the minimum trip. It looked a tall order taking on a field of mostly colts, especially To Wafij, trained by Roger Varian, who had won well over course and distance. He had to shoulder a winner's penalty but One Minute disposed of him like a black widow spider looking for a Big Mac before a date. 

This January foal ran out an easy win by more than three lengths. 

The form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions. It is probably the case that To Wafij and Demons Rock went a stride too fast that day, while Elysium Dream needed an extra furlong which proved the point when needing every yard to win her next start. One Minute has to carry a penalty, which is a fair test even for a talent. At odds of 4/9f she will most likely be a banker for most punters who like to dig deep. 

That's all good and well. However, even the best horses get beaten often when you least expect.

There may be a couple of outsiders worthy of respect. 

Philip McBride is a canny trainer. He is particularly good with his fillies and those running on their second start. Onefootinparadise is a bay daughter of Footstepsinthesand and a cheap purchase at just 2,000G. That price tag alone will put most punters off betting. There is no doubt she needs to improve on that debut. The form is no more than average but she suffered a terribly slow start and ran on with spirit. McBride gives the honours to an apprentice to take a valuable 5lb off her back. The betting is a key factor. We are looking at a big price chance but I wouldn't bet if this filly is priced over 20/1. However, if priced about 14/1 & less SP she could be worthy of a small each-way bet. 

Sovereign State is interesting. This bay colt needs to be primed to win on debut. However, I can be pretty confident this son of Compton Place has ability. Racing in the ownership of Qatar Racing Ltd, he looks a great breeze-up purchase at just £30,000. Readers may have noticed that Robert Cowell sent out an exciting filly to win the Hilary Needler Stakes at Beverley on debut. The Brian Yeardley Stakes for colts had a very interesting entry who didn't run. It was Sovereign State. That entry is a very good indicator that Cowell rates this colt and I suspect he will run a big race here. 

Viscount Loftus and May Girl are best watched.

Conclusion: One Minute looks a filly going places and if winning here you can bet connections will be viewing Royal Ascot with interest. True, she will take some beating but whether you want to jump in at 4/9f carrying a penalty is another matter. If this was a donkey derby I would be thinking she is half way to a certainty myself but I would be fearful of Sovereign State. He is likely to have ability and we know from Cowell's past exploits that he can train a talent to win on debut. I would be fearful of this colt. Onefootinparadise looks a poor relation to these with regard purchase price but McBride is no fool. The betting will tell the story and if a huge price I would say look to the two favourites. However, if she is 14/1 & less SP she may be a little tougher than you think. If you are convinced the fvourite will win with ease, I'd have a small cover bet on Sovereign State just to help you sleep at night!

Boris Johnson for Prime Minister?

Boris Johnson for Prime Minister? Personally, it's not a thought that fills me with boundless joy, but really I'm just bleary eyed, election watching, and casting my mind back to an outsider that one punter bet on late last month. A week or so back, people were laughing themselves silly at a £2000 bet one Labrokes punter made on Boris Johnson to be prime minister after the 2017 election (by July 1st). It led to much head scratching and the odd comment that this guy must be a nut!

As it turns out though, it seems like the punter was thinking along the right lines. At time of writing, the 2017 general election seat tally is Con: 303 Lab: 256 Lid Dem: 12 SNP: 34  Other 21 . This is a significant under performance for Theresa May and has the potential to create more problems than it solves. As such, itm ay well be that the party decides that she now has to go. With that in mind the former London mayor is currently rapidly shortening in price to be the next leader.

So I hear you ask, what were the betting odds for Boris becoming prime minister following the election, when this brave follow bet a cool two grand on it. Wait for it........... 100 - 1 . Possibly he'll now try to lay off some of the bet to make sure he gets a clunk of well deserve cash based on his foresight. It was a shrewd bet considering that a hung parliament wasn't 'entirely' out of the question, and the fact that Boris Johnson was widely expected to run for the Tory leadership last year following David Cameron stepping down. This political betting certainly lark seems to work out okay for some, and I'm glad someone is benefiting from our current crazy political lurches this was and that. Uncertain times ahead.

6:25 Windsor (22nd May)

British Stallions EBF FILLIES' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race)

A Fillies' Novice Stakes over 6f 12y on good to soft ground. Decent price money on offer sees eight two-year-olds take part.

Charlie Appleby has been the king of debut winners this season such is the force of Godolphin. Dathanna is made favourite (15/8) in the tissue prices but it will be interesting to see if she is opposed to what could be a respectable form horse. 

Dathanna is a daughter of Dubawi is likely to have the ability but needs to bit ready against more experienced rivals. 

Cardaw Lily hails from Richard Hughes who I have been quite critical of as a trainer. He often fails miserably with fancied horses although this daughter of Lawman ran well on debut at Ascot a race that is likely to yield many winners. Certainly the first three look capable of a higher class.This £35,000 yearling purchase was sent off 33-1. She was slow away but ran on well in the closing stages without being hard pressed. With that experience under her belt, you have to feel a big race.

Angel Of The South was behind. Dean Ivory's daughter of Dark Angel was fancied to go well on debut at this course and finished second to Rock Of Estonia. Considering she cost £170,000 at the yearling sales it is fair to imagine connections expected a bold show at Ascot. She didn't run well at all. However, it was a competitive race so you have to be careful because it may have been her running. She led that day with Mrs Gallagher and thought she went a stride too fast for her ability. The betting kind of suggests the bookmakers think the same. It will be interesting to see how both Cardaw Law and Angel Of The South go over this extra furlong. I would prefer the former but it will be intriguing.

Richard Hannon's Elysium Dream is another filly who ran in a hot maiden on debut won impressively by One Minute. This daughter of Champs Elysees looked clueless that day when 20/1. The leaders set a frantic pace but even so she was toiling behind like she had no hope of even being competitive. However, she plugged on and was chasing down the second and third with some aggression in the closing furlong. There is little doubt the placed horses had run out of energy so you have to be slightly cautious and wonder if Elysium Dream was flattered. This extra yardage will help but she wouldn't want to be slow into stride on this dog leg. 

Andrew Balding does well at this course so Angel Islington may go ok. Priced at 11/1 currently, it's certainly worth a look.

Similarly, Clive Cox can go win with debutantes. Windsor used to be a significant course for this trainer in the good old days so it is interesting to see Little Miss Lilly (also 11/1). 

Conclusion: Dathanna will have her supporters. Debutantes for this stable have done nothing wrong this season so that is a positive and six furlongs is easier for making ground if a touch slow into stride. I would take a watching brief. Cardaw Lily should go well and appreciate this extra furlong. She will improve from a nice introduction at Ascot. On that form, she should beat Angel Of The South but it is a matter of debate whether she ran her race that day. It was a strange run and I wouldn't give up hope on Ivory's horse just yet. However, I would need a double-figure price to take an interest. Not sure what to think about Elysium Dream. She could be a class act but needs to be much livelier this time round. The extra furlong should be a huge positive and that experience could have blown the cobwebs away. Angel Islington and Little Miss Lilly have claims and would be my picks here!

 As seen on bettingTips4you.com . They have a good track record and offer great profit opportunities. They certainly do their homework and identify the value on outsider bets. This is true on multiple sports and especially horse racing

The Quest For a Big Win

A cousin of mine takes part in a monthly horse racing tips competition alongside a few others run by my brother. It's just a bit of fun, is free and has a small cash prize each month so keeps people interested. This Saturday he somehow managed to get a 40-1 shot up (Henllan Harri at Sandown in the 3:35 Gold Cup Handicap Chase), and that was just the odds with the bookies, so it was possibly 100-1 + with Betfair. It's not every day of the week you get a winner at those odds, and of course I'm sure he's kicking himself for not having a bet on it.

Even though I'm definitely one to look for a big priced outsider win (hadn't you guessed from the URL of the blog!), I do often find myself more likely to pick out a few selections at around the 20-1 mark or thereabouts because you do need at least the semi occasional win to keep the momentum going motivation wise. For either myself, or those who keep up to speed with my bets, if I was always fixating on the 'rare as hen's teeth' odds range, I'd likely have an awful lot of lean spells.

That said, sometimes there are horses that, huge priced as they are, you can't help but at least think they have half a hope (and of course taking 'price to chance' into account, that's all you need at crazy odds). Those are the wins you remember, the real stand outs over the span of your betting life.

Of course many big wins in racing, aren't single bet outsiders as such, but instead accumulator bets with huge combined odds with at best an outside chance of winning. Not to say that they don't happen though. Case in point on Friday afternoon (28th April) one lucky Coral punter received the biggest payout in their history with his five horse accumulator, placing a paltry £19 on five Punchestown, Ireland bets and walking away with a mind boggling £823,000 - a fact he didn't even recieve until checking his account on the early hours of Saturday after a night out. A night to remember! The Vegas slots 'casino level win' of bets, something to muse over while you're playing high RTP Slots.

One of his selections (Canardier) was an outsider in its own right at 33-1, so was a brave selection to even include in an accumulator to be honest. His other selections were 10/1 Das Mooser (3.40 Punchestown), 9/2 Woodland Opera (4.20 Punchestown), 7/1 Definite Ruby (4.55 Punchestown), 10/1 Bacardys (6.05 Punchestown) and the bet consisted of 5 £3 4 fourfold accumulators and one £4 fivefold.

What's the biggest priced horse that's romped home for you (or biggest combined odds of your biggest winning acca)?

6:00 Nottingham (22nd April) - Novice Stakes

A Novice Stakes for two-year-olds over 5f 13y on good to firm going. Eight juveniles take part all debutantes bar one horse with race experience. 

Poignant is a son of Sepoy and trained by Archie Watson who has been a power of strength since starting his training career. This chestnut colt is a homebred for present owner Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd. He made his debut just over two weeks ago when making his debut at Leicester finishing seventh behind easy winner Kick On Kick On trained by Clive Cox. It was a fair effort if nothing out of the ordinary. The starting odds of 16-1 suggested that he may have been in need of run and better could be expected on these next few starts. 

John Gallagher doesn't have many two-year-olds in training and very few winning on debut.To be fair, he does have a few debutantes that go close and if memory serves one prevailed last year at Goodwood. Green Power is likely to be a big price here. This March foal is a son of Kheleyf and £7,000 yearling purchase by the trainer. Best watched. 

The last few years have seen the fortunes of Mich Channon's stable suffer. From a powerhouse training talented two-year-olds his string is now a shadow of what used to be and consequently, the victories are harder to find. Neola is one of two fillies in the field. This daughter of Foxwedge. The dam, Effie B, used to be trained by Channon and a fair juvenile winning over £40,000 in total prize money. The betting is the best guide to this fillies' chances. If priced bigger than 8-1 I would definitely take a watching brief. If priced in the best betting guide has some chance although the stable are struggling to hit the headlines.

Another small trainer is John Holt. Mocead Cappall. This daughter of Captain Gerrard is out of a dam readers may recall All Fur Coat.She finished second on debut but managed one victory. Mocead Cappall was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for £9,500. Will be a big price but a surprise if good enough today. 

One trainer and owner combination that ticks a lot of boxes is John Fretwell and David Brown. Both talents when it comes to spotting talented two-year-olds they have done well with some very precocious types over the years. Snaffled is a bay colt, sired by Camacho , purchased by Fretwell for 57,000G at the yearling sales. One of the more fancied runner from a stable who can ready a debutante. Definitely, on the shortlist especially if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Richard Fahey has been in flying form this season with his juveniles and one of few trainers who can get them fitter than a butcher's dog. A number of winners have been seen on debut and Simmy's Copshop is likely to start favourite. This chestnut son of Bahamian Bounty is in the ownership of Middleham Park Racing. He cost 45,000E at the yearling sales. A trainer who knows how to win and his juveniles have been in form. 

Karl Burk has been a bit hit and miss with his juveniles this season although we sent out a huge 66-1 winning two-year-old at Ripon on Thursday. Havana Grey will be more fancied and could well be a big player. This son of Havana Gold cost 70,000E at the yearling sales, the price increasing markedly from a foal. Should fit the frame. 

The first two-year-old runner of the season fro Michael Bell. Interesting to see him with an early juvenile as it is often an indicator they fancy them to have a level of ability. Choice Encounter is a son of Choisir and bought in by the vendor for 65,000. Louis Steward takes off a valuable 3lb. Another horse who should be in the first three. 

Conclusion: We endevour to bring you the best horse racing tips. In general, we're all about big priced outsiders but I don't get a feeling a big priced winner will shine here. Quite interested in Choice Encounter who looks a decent each-way bet at odds of 11-2. 

 

2000 Guineas Outsider Tip

The first colts’ classic of the season, the Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes, is still a few weeks away, but Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo colt Churchill is already past the post, if the ante post market is to be believed. The European champion two-year-old stayed on well to win the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at Newmarket last October by 1¼ lengths, despite being denied a clear run, and seems sure to be a tough nut to crack once again.

However, 6/4 favourites are not what we’re about and we much prefer to take a chance on Kevin Ryan’s unbeaten colt Syphax, who can be backed at a standout 50/1 with Stan James. By Arch out of a Kingmambo mare, Syphax is bred to stay a mile, or further, and stepped up significantly on his winning debut, in a lowly Musselburgh maiden, when edging out Best Of Days in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at York last August. The runner-up did the form no harm when winning the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket on his only subsequent start and, having displayed signs of inexperience on both starts, Syphax remains open to significant improvement, especially over a mile. Win or lose, 50/1 is a silly price.

Selection: 3.35 Newmarket, Saturday, May 6 - Syphax each-way (50/1 with Stan James)

Grand National Outsiders

The world’s greatest steeplechase, the Grand National, is only a few days away and, with the leading bookmakers offering ‘non-runner no bet’, we can afford to dabble at long odds in the ante post market. Who knows, we might just uncover some value. The Grand National has a safety limit of 40, so we’ve concentrated on a few that have realistic chances of getting into the race.

One For Arthur (16/1) has yet to win beyond 3 miles 5 furlongs, but has winning form on soft and heavy going and appears to be improving, so must have every chance if lasting home over and extra 5½ furlongs. Lucinda Russell’s 8-year-old made a promising reappearance when fifth of 22, beaten 3 lengths, behind Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase, over 3 miles 2 furlongs, on the Grand National Course in December. The way he finished that day suggested that he can reverse the form with the winner over this extra distance, despite being 4lb worse off at today’s weights. The Milan gelding confirmed that promise when winning the Classic Chase, over 3 miles 5 furlongs, at Warwick in January and, although 11lb higher in the weights, should remain competitive.

Double Shuffle (50/1), owned by the aptly-named Crossed Fingers Partnership, also has a question mark against him with regard to stamina, having done all his winning at 3 miles or shorter. However, he comes into the race in good form, having just been touched off in the Betbright Chase at Kempton six weeks ago. That performance – and his previous win at Kempton in December – came on good going, but he’s won on soft and looks reasonably handicapped if lasting home.

Wonderful Charm (66/1) has been running well in hunter chases this season, winning twice and going down by an ever-diminishing neck to Pacha Du Polder in the St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival last month. Paul Nicholls 9-year-old was pulled up in this race last year, but is 5lb lower in the weights this time around and, with his confidence boosted, could fare much better this time. Again, he has his stamina to prove, but that’s reflected in his price and he has winning form on the prevailing soft ground.

Selections: One For Arthur (16/1 with Betfair Sportsbook), Double Shuffle (50/1 with Bet Stars), Wonderful Charm (66/1 with Sportingbet)