The TurfTV Handicap (4.20) at Newmarket
on Saturday is less prestigious than the races we typically examine
in this column, but larger fields on the Flat and going changes
increase the likelihood of ‘surprise’ winners at this time of
year, so it looks an ideal contest for us.
Popeswood appears to be a
difficult horse to catch right, to which his career record of two
wins from 23 starts bears testament, but both those wins came over 7
furlongs with cut in the ground and he’s well handicapped on the
pick of his juvenile form. In fact, he’s 3lb lower in the weights
than when winning, in this grade, at Goodwood last October, so would
appear to have every chance if anywhere near his best. Of course,
that’s a big “if”, because he’s not looked a readymade
winner-in-waiting on recent starts, but he popped at Goodwood after a
couple of indifferent efforts and could do so again.
Piceno is on a losing run of
seventeen stretching back to a year ago last April, but is
consequently just 1lb higher in the weights than when winning a 0-75
contest, over 7 furlongs on soft going, at Catterick and is another
who’d have a squeak on the pick of his form. He’s been off the
course since April, which is an obvious cause for concern, but he’d
earlier run creditably in defeat over 7 furlongs at Catterick,
including in a 0-90 contest, so it wouldn’t be a complete surprise
if he went well off a 1lb lower mark.
Robert Winston doesn’t have too many
rides for David O’Meara, but has a very healthy 4-16 (25%) strike
rate for the Nawton trainer over the last five seasons, rising to 3-7
(43%) on older horses for the yard in the same period. His booking
for Zacynthus, who only joined O’Meara in July, is one
reason that the 7-year-old is a must for our shortlist. The Iffraaj
gelding was only beaten 1½ lengths in a 0-90 contest at Ayr on his
penultimate start and, although beaten out of sight at York last
time, has an obvious chance off a 1lb higher mark.
Selections: 4.20 Newmarket
Popeswood, Piceno, Zacynthus