With four winning favourites in the
last ten years and no winner longer than 7/1 in that period, the
Derby, held on Saturday 6th June, shouldn’t really be one for us. Nevertheless, the Derby is
the Derby, so rather than hold our ‘manhoods cheap’, we’ve
rowed in with a couple that we think should give us a run for our
money at long odds.
Aidan O’Brien, as usual, makes life
difficult for punters by saddling Giovanni Canaletto (7/1), Hans
Holbein (16/1) and Kilimanjaro (20/1), but the last-named is
2-2 since stepped up to middle distances this season and may have
been underestimated by the bookmakers. The son of High Chaparral has
15lb or more to find with the likes of Elm Park, Golden Horn and
Success Days on official ratings, but has already gone up 15lb in the
weights, courtesy of his defeat of Magic Dancer and the
Christophermarlowe (rated 109) in the Betfred.com Derby Trial Stakes
at Lingfield four weeks ago, and may have more to offer.
Success Days (16/1) is another
who’s unbeaten as a 3-year-old and took the step up in class and
distance in his stride when winning the Ballysax Stakes and the
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes – both Group 3 contests over 1
mile 2 furlongs at Leopardstown – in recent months. He’s earned a
17lb rise in the weights since the start of the season, which means
he has little or nothing to find with most of these on official
ratings. He’s done all his recent winning on soft or heavy ground,
which he won’t encounter at Epsom unless the scattered
thunderstorms forecast for the South East on Friday are worse than
expected, but he also won on good to yielding going at Gowran Park
last season, so may not be entirely ground dependent.
Last, but not least, Moheet (50/1)
has been abandoned by Frankie Dettori – who, unsurprisingly,
prefers the unbeaten ante post favourite Golden Horn (13/8) – but
Richard Hannon’s colt probably needed the run on his reappearance
in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket in April and reversed the form with
the winner, Kool Kompany, in the 2,000 Guineas, despite suffering a
nightmare passage through the race. The High Chaparral colt has yet
to race beyond a mile, but middle distances could be the making of
him and if there is a ‘dark’ horse in the race, he’s it!
Selections: Moheet (50/1 with
Bet465, Stan James and 888Sport), Kilimanjaro (20/1 generally
available) and Success Days (16/1 generally available).
Good luck!