Four favourites have won the first
Classic of the season, the 2,000 Guineas, in the last ten years, but
winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 11/1 in the same period provide cause
for optimism as far as this column is concerned. Regular readers may
recall that, this time last year, we latched onto the ‘wrong’
outsider trained by Richard Hannon, Shifting Power, instead of the
winner, Night Of Thunder, so we’re hoping for better fortune this
time around.
Room Key (100/1) was beaten 4
lengths when fifth of six behind Estidhkaar in the Champagne Stakes,
over 7 furlongs, at Doncaster last September, but that form looks all
the better for the latter’s neck second, behind Muhaarar, in the
Greenham Stakes at Newbury two weeks ago. Ivawood was only third,
beaten 4½ lengths, on that occasion, so a strict interpretation of
the form suggests Room Key is outstanding value at the odds on offer.
He’s by Mount Nelson, winner of the Eclipse Stakes, so should be
suited by the step up to a mile and could be open to significant
improvement after just four starts.
Trainer Hugo Palmer is confident that
Home Of The Brave (33/1) has sufficient stamina for a mile
after winning the European Free Handicap, over 7 furlongs, at
Newmarket earlier this month. Home Of The Brave is by
Starspangledbanner out of a Beat Hollow mare, so has plenty of
stamina in the bottom half of his pedigree. However, he attempts to
become the first winner of the European Free Handicap since Mystiko,
in 1991, to win the 2,000 and, as his trainer acknowledged, there’s
‘a big difference between staying a mile and being good enough to
win a Guineas’.
Celestial Path (25/1) has 3¼
lengths to find with Elm Park on their running in the Racing Post
Trophy over a mile at Doncaster last October but, back on faster
ground, may be able to reverse the form. His two previous wins came
on good to firm and good going so, although he’s officially rated
7lb inferior to Elm Park, he could be worth chancing. Certainly, he’s
bred to be a top-class miler and may just have a little more scope
for improvement than his rival.
Selections: Room Key (100/1
generally available), Home Of The Brave (33/1 with Bet365, Sky
Bet and William Hill) and Celestial Path (25/1 generally
available).
Good luck!