The EBF & TBA Mares’ “National
Hunt” Novices’Hurdle Finale (2.35) at Newbury on Saturday
features 18 mares, all of whom are officially rated within 13lb of
each other and all of whom, bar Briery Belle, have won at least once
this season, so finding a likely winner is no easy task. Of course,
that suits us down to the ground and, as usual, we’ve highlighted a
few that we think could belie generous odds.
For pure devilment, if nothing else,
let’s start with Briery Belle (18/1), who is the only maiden in the
field and appears to be Henry Daly’s second string on jockey
bookings. Nevertheless, the daughter of King’s Theatre ran
creditably in defeat when fourth of eleven, beaten 9¼ lengths, in a
novices’ event at Sandown last month and may be capable of building
on that effort. Strictly speaking, she’s 5lb better off for 5½
lengths with Ron’s Dream, 4lb better off for 4 lengths with Queen
Of The Stage, who finished second and third at Sandown, and just 2lb
worse off for 6 lengths with Theregoesthetruth, who finished fifth
so, even without further improvement, she appears feasibly weighted
on her handicap debut.
Ballyhollow (25/1) was eased, pulled up
and dismounted in the aforementioned Sandown race after bursting a
blood vessel, but had previously been progressing nicely and won
under Paul Moloney on her handicap debut, over 3 miles, on her
penultimate start. She takes a significant step up in class off her
revised mark, but a first-time hood may bring about some improvement
and, in any case, she deserves a chance to show her true colours at
this level.
On the book, Henry Oliver’s nicely
bred Flemensfirth mare Theregoesthetruth (16/1) has her work cut out
to beat Ron’s Dream, Queen Of The Stage and Briery Belle, who all
finished in front of her at Sandown, but was hampered and made a
mistake at the final flight, when trying to rally, on that occasion
and remains of interest. Her two wins so far have come on soft and
heavy going, so a drop of rain wouldn’t hurt, but an extra furlong
is in her favour, as is the booking of A.P. McCoy, who hasn’t had a
ride for Henry Oliver in the last five seasons.
Keen-eyed readers will have noticed
that one particular race at Sandown may provide the key to this one
but, anyway, our three against the field this week, in order of
preference are Theregoesthetruth (16/1 with William Hill), Briery
Belle (18/1 with William Hill) and Ballyhollow (25/1 with William
Hill). Good luck!
