The Lincoln Handicap, which has been
run over a mile on Town Moor, Doncaster since the closure of Lincoln
Racecourse in 1965, is always highly competitive. The traditional
curtain-raiser for the Flat season proper has actually produced three
winning favourites in the last 10 years but, with winners at 25/1,
22/1, 20/1 (twice) and 16/1 in the same period, it’s just the sort
of race in which we like to get involved.
I noticed earlier in the week that our
friends the enemy were quite happy to lay 100/1, or 200/1, in the
ante post market about horses with no earthly chance of making it
into the race, never mind winning it but, lo and behold, once the
final declarations were published, they wouldn’t lay a single horse
at odds longer than 33/1. If you’re lucky enough to back a winning
outsider, you want a ‘proper’ return for your money, so my advice
would be to boycott the bookmakers altogether and place your bets on
Betfair, at Betfair Starting Price, instead.
The consequences of Lincoln (25/1),
trained by Mick Channon, winning the Lincoln are almost too hilarious
to contemplate, but the 4-year-old was in decent form when last seen
in September and doesn’t look overburdened, off a handicap mark of
97, for his first attempt at a mile. His 1½-length defeat of
Newstead Abbey (gave 1lb) over 7 furlongs at Chester was a creditable
effort and he suggested on his previous visit to the Cheshire track,
when fourth over 7 furlongs 122 yards, that a mile is within his
compass.
As a former winner of the Royal Hunt
Cup at Ascot, Belgian Bill (20/1) is clearly effective over a
straight mile and the son of Exceed And Excel has been in excellent
form in Dubai over the winter. He’s just 2lb higher in the weights
than when winning a 95-105 contest, over a mile on good going, at
Meydan in January and, having run creditably in defeat on both
subsequent starts over 1 mile 2 furlongs, appears to have an obvious
chance. He’s drawn in stall 2, which may not be ideal, but the draw
has proved inconclusive in the Lincoln in recent years.
Just to be on the safe side, though,
we’d better have one that’s drawn high as well, so the suggestion
is Boom And Bust (33/1), who’s 2lb lower in the weights than when
fifth of eight, beaten 1¾ lengths, in a decent handicap at Leicester
in October and remains on his lowest handicap mark since winning the
Shergar Mile at Ascot three seasons ago. Apprentice Jordan Vaughan
can do 7st 12lb, so can claim all his 5lb allowance and that might
just make the difference.
So, in the annual guessing game that is
the Lincoln, our three against the field are, in order of preference,
Belgian Bill (20/1 generally available), Lincoln (25/1 generally
available) and Boom And Bust (33/1 generally available). The chances
are that all three will be available at longer prices on Betfair on
Saturday, so have fun and good luck!
