Traditionally, the
market has proved a tremendous guide to the outcome of the Paddy
Power Gold Cup, with the winner typically a well-fancied, progressive
young chaser from a southern stable. However, history is in the past,
as they say, so we’ve decided to look beyond the first four in the
market for two or three we think could go well at decent odds.
If only for pure
devilment, we always like to have a look at the complete outsider of
the field and, this week, it’s actually possible to make a case for
Orpheus Valley (66/1). Horse racing statisticians will tell you,
quite rightly, that horses aged 10 years or older and horses trained
in Ireland have a very poor record in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Consequently, Orpheus Valley, an 11-year-old trained by Thomas Gibney
in Co. Meath, is apparently on a hiding to nothing, but his win over
2 miles 5 furlongs at Punchestown in April was an excellent effort
and, even off a 9lb higher mark, may be capable of making his
presence felt, especially if allowed a soft lead. He jumps well and
acts on heavy going so, if the forecast heavy rain gets into the
ground, he can lead the field a merry dance.
Cedre Bleu (40/1), now
in the care of Charlie Mann, went off the boil after finishing
second, beaten 4½ lengths, behind Double Ross over 2 miles 5
furlongs on the New Course at Cheltenham last January, but isn’t
impossibly handicapped on his best form. In fact, he can race off the
same handicap mark as when second, beaten 1¼ lengths, behind
Anquetta at Market Rasen last May on his final start for Paul
Nicholls and should strip fitter for his reappearance in a decent
race at Wetherby two weeks ago. He hardly leaps off the page as a
readymade winner-in-waiting, but he wouldn’t be the first horse to
improve for a change of scenery and he has a squeak, especially if
the going deteriorates.
Another horse discarded
by Paul Nicholls between last season and this, Edgardo Sol (25/1),
was restricted to hurdles after jumping poorly on his seasonal debut
over fences at Aintree last October. However, the son of useful jumps
sire Kapgarde made a fair, if unspectacular, debut over fences for
Emma Lavelle on the same course three weeks ago and may be capable of
building on that effort. A French import, he first ran over fences as
a four-year-old, but he’s still only seven, so it’s too soon to
be writing him off just yet.
The Paddy Power Gold
Cup is, as ever, hugely competitive, with plenty of activity at the
head of the market. However, that’s not what we’re about, so our
three against the field this week are, in order of preference,
Edgardo Sol (25/1 generally), Cedre Bleu (40/1 with Sky Bet,
Betvictor and Stan James) and Orpheus Valley (66/1 with Bet365, Sky
Bet and Betvictor). Win or lose, enjoy the race and good luck!