The Betfred Ebor, run
over 1 mile 6 furlongs at York, is the most valuable Flat handicap in
Europe, worth £164,962 to the winner. Understandably, the race is
always well subscribed and a total of 22 horses (including two
reserves) stood their ground at the final declaration stage for this
year’s renewal, due off at 3.50 p.m. on Saturday, August 23. Just
one favourite has won the Ebor in the last ten years and, with
winners at 14/1, 25/1 (three times) and 100/1 in that period, we’ve
decided to cast an eye over a few of those available at generous odds
in the ante post lists.
It’s interesting to
note that David O’Meara’s stable jockey Daniel Tudhope, who
presumably had the option of riding Repeater for his boss, opts for
Luca Cumani’s lightly-raced four-year-old Sir Walter Scott instead.
The Galileo colt, who was trained by Aidan O’Brien until June, has
been restricted to three starts so far and has clearly had his
problems. However, he was far from disgraced when sixth of ten,
beaten 5½ lengths, in the Listed Doom Bar Stakes, over 1 mile 2
furlongs, at Newbury five weeks ago on his debut for Luca Cumani.
Indeed, he looked in need of further on that occasion, as he had when
second over 1 mile 4 furlongs at the Curragh last October. He doesn’t
appear obviously well-handicapped off a mark of 100, but is the one
truly ‘dark’ horse in the race and could be worth chancing at
25/1. Daniel Tudhope’s 3-7 (43%) strike rate for the yard is also
quite encouraging.
Aussie Reigns has
struggled at little off handicap marks of 100+ since winning a Listed
race, over 1 mile 4 furlongs, on the all-weather at Kempton last
November, but has run creditably on all five starts since returning
from Dubai in March. Indeed, the way in which he’s been keeping on
at the end of his races over 1 mile 2 furlongs and 1 mile 4 furlongs
suggests that the step up to 1 mile 6 furlongs could be just what he
needs at this stage of his career. If it is, he doesn’t look
impossibly handicapped and could go very well at 40/1. West Sussex
trainer William Knight is 0-11 at York over the last five seasons and
jockey Richard Kingscote is 0-3 for the yard, so the statistics are
hardly encouraging, but Aussie Reigns wouldn’t be the first
less-than-obvious winner of the Ebor.
Last, but hopefully not
least, Retirement Plan appeared to show significant improvement when
stepped up to 2 miles from 1 mile 4 furlongs at Ascot two weeks ago
and, if able to reproduce that level of form over two furlongs
shorter, would be of major interest at 20/1. Lady Cecil’s
four-year-old is another who carries just a 4lb penalty and, although
he’s no better off for the 7½ lengths he finished behind
Pallasator on his previous start at Ascot, staying could be the name
of the game for the son of Monsun.
As ever, it’s a case
of ‘you pay your money and you take your chance, but our three
against the field, in order of preference, are:
Sir Walter Scott 25/1
Aussie Reigns 40/1
Retirement Plan 20/1
