Australia has been ante
post favourite for the Investec Derby (4.00 p.m. Epsom, Saturday,
June 7) ever since he impressively won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Trial Turf Stakes, over a mile, at Leopardstown last September and
was hailed by his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, as ‘the best horse
we’ve ever had’. The Galileo colt confirmed his position at the
head of the ante post market when finishing third, beaten half a
length and a head, behind Night Of Thunder and Kingman in the Qipco
2,000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket five weeks ago and co-owner Michael
Tabor told At The Races last week that ‘people in Ballydoyle will
be surprised if Australia doesn't win’.
However, Aidan O’Brien
has expressed his concerns about the possibility of soft ground at
Epsom on Derby Day and, with the going currently good to soft, good
in places and an unsettled forecast for the week ahead, underfoot
conditions may not be ideal for Australia. Furthermore, O’Brien
also failed to categorically deny that another of his Derby entries,
Geoffrey Chaucer, had comprehensively beaten Australia in a gallop at
Ballydoyle so, for all his Classic credentials, Australia looks poor
value at even money.
The good news, as far
as we’re concerned is that the bookmakers bet 12/1 bar the O’Brien
pair already mentioned, so there must be a decent chance of an upset.
The longest priced winner of the Derby in the last ten years was
Ruler Of The World at 7/1 last year, but looking further back, High
Rise (20/1), Snow Knight (50/1) and Morston (25/1) all belied long
odds, so a shock result is not entirely out of the question.
Although not strictly
an outsider, insofar as he’s 12/1 third favourite in the ante post
lists, Kingston Hill looks overpriced if the going at Epsom remains
on the soft side. The son of champion first-season sire
Mastercraftsman, out of a Rainbow Quest mare, has 4¼ lengths to find
with Australia on their running in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes,
but the way he kept on steadily at Newmarket, albeit with threatening
the leaders, suggested that stepping up to a mile and a half would be
in his favour. Indeed, he stayed on strongly when winning the Racing
Post Trophy, over a mile, on soft going at Doncaster last October
and, while a line through the runner-up Johann Strauss also gives him
something to find with Australia, he looks to have bright prospects
of reversing the Guineas form if conditions remain in his favour.
Sir Michael Stoute has
won the Derby five times, most recently with Workforce in 2010, so
Snow Hill (25/1) must be worth a second look. The Nayef colt has 2¼
lengths to find with impressive winner Western Hymn on their running
over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Newbury in April, but improved to win the
Betfred.com Derby Trial Stakes, over 1 mile 3½ furlongs, at
Lingfield four weeks ago. Exactly what that form amount to is hard to
tell, but it seems the further he goes the better he is so, with
underfoot conditions sure to suit, whatever the weather, he looks a
live outsider.
Whatever the result,
The Investec Derby promises to be an umissable contest, but our two
against the field, in no particular order, are:
Kingston Hill (12/1
with Bet365, Betvictor and Paddy Power)
Snow Hill (25/1 with
Paddy Power and William Hill)
Good luck!
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